Modeled on: Former head of fixed income trading, Pine River Capital Management · founder, Major League Pickleball
“Buy what the market has written off when its gloomy assumptions look wrong, and judge each price against its closest peers.” Assets the market has written off, bought when the price assumes a future that is too gloomy.
Not affiliated with Steve Kuhn or Pine River Capital Management. This bot is a computer model Pick100 built from Steve Kuhn's public statements and filings. Steve Kuhn did not create, review or endorse it, its picks are not Steve Kuhn's picks, and chatting with it is not talking to Steve Kuhn. Legal notice
01The investor's record
These are the investor's own results as of 2026-10-22, not the bot's. The bot is an independent model, not endorsed by Steve Kuhn or Pine River Capital Management, and not investment advice.
02History and philosophy
Kuhn spent about two decades trading mortgage-backed securities and other fixed income: Cargill, Citadel (1999–2002), Goldman Sachs Asset Management (2002–2007) and Pine River Capital Management from January 2008. He became a partner in 2009 and retired in April 2016. Almost none of his record is in stocks.
His best-known trades share one idea: the price assumed something about people's behaviour that was too gloomy or wrong. In 2010 he bet that fewer homeowners would refinance than prices implied; in late 2011 he called long subprime the best trade of 2012. After retiring he built Major League Pickleball (2021), helped build the DUPR rating system and co-founded SportsPredict.com.
03Public positions
Pine River returned over 90%; assets tarred as toxic were cheap.
Prices implied 60% of homeowners would refinance in a year; he said no. His $1.2 billion portfolio returned 27%.
Called it the best trade of 2012; his funds returned 28% and 32.9% in ten months.
Rules made refinancing hard for small loans, keeping higher-rate loans outstanding for holders.
A mortgage REIT run buy-and-hold, unlike the active hedge fund.
The fund he co-managed posted its first-ever loss months before he left in 2016.
Teams sold for up to $10 million, from as little as $100,000 a year earlier (CNBC, 2023).
A free sports-prediction platform for fans who do not want to bet.
04How the bot thinks
Every Nasdaq 100 company is ranked on what the playbook cares about. Its long score, for how well a company fits:
The closest fits to the checklist: cheap on earnings, cheap on cash flow, cheap on book value. Score near 100.
A separate short score hunts the worst fits: expensive on earnings, expensive on cash flow, expensive on book value. Re-ranked every quarter, at the close. Loss-makers are allowed long.
How far a company sits from the checklist: expensive on earnings, expensive on cash flow, expensive on book value.
05Investment themes
In 2010 mortgage prices implied that 60% of US homeowners would refinance within a year. He found the same figures had been right in 2003 and bet they would not repeat. He found no Nasdaq 100 company that he discussed in these terms.
In 2013 he said new regulations made refinancing prohibitive for loans of $100,000 or less, which kept higher-rate loans outstanding for investors like him.
Since 2021 his public work is Major League Pickleball, DUPR and SportsPredict.com. He has made no public comment on artificial intelligence or on any Nasdaq 100 company in the sources opened.
06Model output
Long: #1 of 100 on Steve Kuhn's long-minus-short score (0.888).
Short: #1 of 50 shorts on Steve Kuhn's long-minus-short score (-0.696).
07The bot's own results
4 of 8 right
The side its portfolio held on each day's stock. The bot doesn't pick: it holds all 100.
08The full book
Equal weight: $1,000 a position. Cheap and Quality are percentiles within the Nasdaq 100; a dash means the figure is missing.
09Go deeper
10Method and limits
The 100 Nasdaq 100 companies. Anything outside it can't be held.
Long score: Earnings yield 3, Cash-flow yield 3, Book yield 2, 12-month trend 2, Leverage 2, Net margin 1. Short score: Earnings yield 3, Cash-flow yield 2, Book yield 2, 12-month trend 2, Leverage 1. Each a weighted blend of the company's percentile on each measure; the 50 with the best long minus short go long.
Always 50 long and 50 short. No market or rate bets. Changes fill at the next close.
Some tickers are missing figures and sit mid-pack on that measure.
Modeled on Steve Kuhn's published approach. It is not Steve Kuhn, and its picks are not Steve Kuhn's. A free game on real closing prices, not investment advice.